(I originally wrote this in November 2020, but never posted it. I’ve updated to reflect current numbers and statuses)

Before I get into the specifics, let me make a few things clear.

Yes, COVID-19 is real, is still spreading, is a threat and needs to be treated as one. I fully endorse taking precautionary prevention actions such as: social distancing, wearing a mask when in an enclosed area (or when maintaining distance is not plausible), limiting capacity inside buildings, and most of all if you feel sick to stay home.

With that said, I don’t believe lock-downs are the way to go. Many people, and Americans more so, react poorly to being “mandated”, and the more restrictions that you place on someone, the more stubbornly they will refuse. So, one portion of the population is not cooperating simply because you are trying to make them. But that isn’t the only problem. A lot of people, good intentioned people, will live and endure the restrictions like asked, but are not comfortable with them. So, as soon as the restriction is lifted, you have exactly what you didn’t want; a flock of people all going to the places they weren’t allowed to go, all at the same time.

Next, is understanding that this is a new virus that we don’t understand, intellectually or biologically. Don’t get hung up when the CDC, WHO, or Health and Human Services change advice; they are giving the best advice they can with what they know. As they learn more, they can give better advice, it’s really that simple.

But they are not the only one’s learning as they go, internally, we all are. All people have a “basic immunity”, this is information our body has learned throughout our life and through every virus, bacteria, allergen, and bug it has encountered. Our bodies learn to detect similarities with things it has encountered before, and can treat them in a similar manner. Take the flu vaccine for instance. There are over 40 varieties of flu out in the world at large. The vaccine only covers the 7 or 8 most dangerous. This gives us a good defense against those 7 or 8 and a framework on how to defend against all the others. That’s how our bodies work, and overall it works well….until it encounters something completely new.

This is in all reality a new virus. It has no markers similar enough to anything else for our bodies to know what to do with it, and as such whatever actions a person’s body takes to fight it varies wildly, and with just as various results. Think of it this way. If I was to drop you off in front of a diesel generator with no instructions, and say get this running. (I have run a diesel generator before and there are about 14 steps that have to be done in order for it to run correctly). Some people might have knowledge of something somewhat similar and be able to piece it out and get it running without incident, some people would be hopelessly lost and just not be able to get it running (or cause it to blow up in their face), and the majority of people through trial and error would eventually be able to get it going but not without some problems.

This is why we have a percentage of people that are asymptomatic, because their bodies are figuring it out and taking the correct actions.

Most people will fall into the “trial and error” category, and depending on how much “error” is involved, symptoms will range from mild (like a regular cold), moderate (serious cough, chest pain, congestion, mild breathing difficulty), to severe (respiratory distress, uncontrolled fever, organ damage). Most of these will eventually recover, but some may have long-term or permanent damage.

Then there are the people whose bodies can’t figure it out. Nothing different from you or I except how their bodies chose to respond, or in the worst cases, didn’t respond. To them, it is devastating and can be fatal. This is not the same a “high risk” (I’ll get to that in a minute) this is just how the overall biological process works.

Some people are considered high risk, but this is not a category unto itself. Everyone fits in the categories already mentioned, but some people have other conditions that can exasperate the “errors” made in the process. If I have a breathing condition normally (asthma, for example) and I develop what should be moderate symptoms (see previous); because I already have some difficulty breathing adding even a mild increase in difficulty can bring the level from tolerable to dangerous.

Now that the background is out of the way, on to the data. I have questioned continuously what methodology is being used to track the number of cases, and thanks to the Department of Health and Human Services, I have an answer. I will caveat that other agencies or organizations might track differently, but without knowing their methodology, I can’t validate their metrics. The Department of Health and Human Services is currently tracking a severe outbreak as 500 cases per 100,000 people (translation 0.5%). This may sound ridiculous, but the reason this is considered severe is because of the cockroach scenario (for every one you see, there are 20 you don’t). This method can only track confirmed cases. Since there is a significant percentage that are asymptomatic or have only mild symptoms, most of those would not be tested; therefore, would not show up as confirmed cases, but are still capable of transmitting the virus to others. Since they KNOW that 0.5% percent of the population has active cases, they have to theorize that the actual number is much higher. Which is why 500 confirmed cases in 100,000 people is considered severe.

We were told from the beginning that this would not be a “one-and-done” virus, that there would be surges or waves, where the spread would increase and that until vaccines are readily available, prevention is our best way to minimize that. That is still the case. The thinking that if we lock everybody down for (x) amount of time, it will burn itself out, works in theory, but not reality. A true lockdown: everyone at home, zero traveling, no one outside their front door, for six-ish months MIGHT do it. But the consequences of that would be levels of magnitude higher than the threat that the virus poses. Starvation comes to mind, medical conditions that require daily medication or periodic treatment, at some point power and water would shut down without someone to maintain them, and lots of other factors. The fact is that, as a society, we aren’t equipped, mentally or materially, to survive extreme lockdown conditions, and even if we were, there still wouldn’t be a guarantee. If just one person was still a carrier at the end, it would all start again.

Look, I will admit I am scared that I might be one of those “can’t figure it out” or “more error than trial” people, or that one of my immediate family members will be. The simple truth is we don’t, and can’t, know how any person’s body is going to respond, because we have no basis for reference. My Mom has COPD and I worry for her every day, and encourage her to stay away from people (which is a true tribulation for her) as much as possible. These are practical worries, and I take practical precautions. I wear a mask when I’m around anyone other than my family and close friends. I stay six-ish feet away from people when I can. I wash my hands often or use hand sanitizer, and I don’t frequent places I don’t need too.

I still avoid cooking just as much as I used too, but now most of the time I order in, instead of going out. I still drink as much as I used too, but I’m getting cans or growlers from my local brewery instead of going to a bar. I still go to or patronage the same places I did before COVID-19, just maybe not in the same way. I’m still being me, and still doing what I want to do, just being practical about myself and my surroundings.

I will admit that I am not a very social person to begin with, so I don’t miss being at parties or out at a game or in a packed restaurant. However, I know a lot of people that NEED socialization. To them I offer that the same advice applies, be practical. My son and his girlfriend love to go to the beach, and once beaches opened back up, they did go a few times. They went to the bigger beaches first, just to see what they were like, and decided that they were just too crowded to be a safe environment. So, they hit the boardwalk shops they wanted too, and then went to a smaller, less popular, beach and had a great time. A simple decision that reduced their risk, while allowing them to do what they wanted.

Now I can already hear people screaming about the things I didn’t say, and that has been on purpose, because everything to this point has been straight-forward, verifiable, and logical. Everything else starts getting into personal agendas and politics. So, let me get a few of the big hitters out of the way.

            Yes, absolutely, some political figures are taking advantage of circumstances to illicit more control of the population. Shutting down certain businesses while allowing others to remain open, different occupancy limits for churches versus restaurants, mandatory curfews, etc. There is a long list of abuses of power that should and need to be addressed.

            Rallies, protests, organized block parties, concerts, and other mass gatherings are a bad idea, regardless of the reason. I am a huge proponent of the right to peacefully assemble and do not disparage anyone going out and standing up for what they believe, but the more people in a constricted area means more chance of infection spreading, that is simple math.

            Masks are not useless; they serve the designed purpose of preventing liquid particulate from being spread, and it is effective because COVID-19 is NOT a true air-borne virus but lives inside these liquids that we naturally expel while coughing, sneezing, talking, or singing.

Fear is a real thing, especially when it gets sensationalized and hyped up; and numbers like 30.1 million cases and 546,000 dead are both terrifyingly depressing to look at and hard to ignore. However, when you equate that 30.1 million equals 11% of the US population and, while any loss of life is tragic, a mortality rate of only 5.5% is actually very good for an unknown virus, it doesn’t look so bleak.

So, for my final analysis, COVID-19 is out there, it is bad, and most scarily it is unpredictable. The number of cases are going up, that is a cause for concern, and should be watched. However, things are not as bleak as some would lead you to believe. Most of all, keep an honest perspective. Don’t let the fear-mongers or the COVID hoax extremists get to you. Do your own research, and reach your own conclusions. 

Lastly, live. Be careful, be safe, and make smart decisions, but enjoy life. I wish you all the best.